40,000 Troops to Leave Afghanistan By End of 2012

Drawdown plans announced by the U.S. and more than a dozen other nations will shrink the foreign military footprint in Afghanistan by 40,000 troops at the close of next year, leaving Afghan forces increasingly on the frontlines of the decade-long war.


The United States is pulling out the most --
33,000 by the end of 2012. That's one-third of 101,000 American troops
who were in Afghanistan in June -- the peak of U.S. military presence in
the war, according to figures provided by the Pentagon.Others in the 49-nation coalition have
announced withdrawal plans too, even as they insist they are not rushing
to leave. Many nations have vowed to keep troops in Afghanistan to
continue training the Afghan police and army in the years to come. And
many have pledged to keep sending aid to the impoverished country after
the international combat mission ends in 2014.

Still, the exit is making Afghans nervous.


They fear their nation could plunge into
civil war once the foreign forces go home. Their confidence in the
Afghan security forces has risen, but they don't share the U.S.-led
coalition's stated belief that the Afghan soldiers and policemen will be
ready to secure the entire nation in three years. Others worry the
Afghan economy will collapse if foreigners leave and donors get stingy
with aid.


Foreign forces began leaving Afghanistan this year.


About 14,000 foreign troops will withdraw by
the end of December, according to an Associated Press review of more
than a dozen nations' drawdown plans. The United States is pulling out
10,000 service members this year; Canada withdrew 2,850 combat forces this summer; France and Britain will each send about 400 home; Poland is recalling 200; and Denmark and Slovenia are pulling out about 120 combined.


Troop cutbacks will be deeper next year when
an estimated 26,000 more will leave. That figure includes 23,000
Americans; 950 Germans; 600 more French; 500 additional Britons; 400
Poles; 290 Belgians; 156 Spaniards; and 100 Swedes.


Gen. James F. Amos, commandant of the Marine Corps,
told the AP that the number of Marines in Helmand province in southern
Afghanistan will drop "markedly" in 2012, and the role of those who stay
will shift from countering the insurgency to training and advising
Afghan security forces.


Amos declined to discuss the number of Marines expected to leave in 2012.


There are now about 19,400 Marines in Helmand, and that is scheduled to fall to about 18,500 by the end of this year.


"Am I OK with that? The answer is `yes,"' Amos said. "We can't stay in Afghanistan forever."


"Will it work? I don't know. But I know we'll do our part."


Additional troop cuts or accelerated withdrawals are possible.


Many other countries, including Hungary, Finland and Italy,
are finalizing their withdrawal schedules. Presidential elections in
Europe and the European debt crisis also could speed up pullout plans.
Australian Prime Minister Julia Gillard said this week that Australia's training mission could be completed before the 2014 target date.


Back in June, then-U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates
said that when the Obama administration begins pulling troops from
Afghanistan, the U.S. will resist a rush to the exists, "and we expect
the same from our allies." Gates said it was critically important that a
plan for winding down NATO's combat role by the end of 2014 did not
squander gains made against the Taliban that were won at great cost in lives and money.


"The more U.S. forces draw down, the more it
gives the green light for our international partners to also head for
the exits," said Jeffrey Dressler, a senior research analyst at the
Institute for the Study of War in Washington. "There is a cyclical
effect here that is hard to temper once it gets going."


U.S. Army Lt. Col. Jimmie Cummings Jr. said
the cutbacks that have been announced will not affect the coalition's
ability to fight the insurgency.


"We are getting more Afghans into the field
and we are transferring more responsibility to them in many areas,"
Cummings said, adding that many leaders of the Taliban, Al Qaeda and the
Haqqani militant networks have been captured or killed.


Afghan security forces started taking the
lead in seven areas in July. They soon will assume responsibility for
many more regions as part of a gradual process that will put Afghans in
charge of security across the nation by the end of 2014.


Some countries are lobbying to start
transition as soon as possible in areas where they have their troops
deployed -- so they can go home, said a senior NATO
official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss transition.
The official insisted that those desires were not driving decisions on
where Afghan troops are taking the lead. But the official said that
because they want to leave, a number of troop-contributing nations faced
with declining public support at home have started working harder to
get their areas ready to hand off to Afghan forces.


"The big question (after 2014) is if the
Afghan security forces can take on an externally based insurgency with
support from the Pakistani security establishment and all that entails,"
Dressler said. "I think they will have a real challenge on their hands
if the U.S. and NATO countries do not address Pakistani sponsorship of
these groups."
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This is a fucked up situation.... we NEED to bring our soldiers home now, it's only fair. But at the same time I think it's a bad idea to leave that country right now. I dont know what we should do.